La curiosità dell’essere umano non ha confini

La curiosità dell’essere umano non ha confini

La capacità predittiva

 

L’essere umano è sempre stato mosso dalla curiosità verso il futuro. Sin dall’antichità i greci consultavano gli oracoli per conoscere il futuro. Si consultavano per verificare che ci fossero condizioni favorevoli per intraprendere una battaglia. Si tenevano riti di buon auspicio per provare a intervenire sulle sorti del proprio destino.
La curiosità ha mosso l’essere umano anche durante quello che ricordiamo come il periodo più buio della nostra storia: il medioevo. Soprattutto verso la fine di questo periodo vennero individuati personaggi scomodi, capaci di creare scompiglio, disordine e disagi: i maghi, gli stregoni, le streghe.
Personaggi che, anche nell’epoca successiva, il Rinascimento, persero la vita a causa della loro presunta o effettiva capacità di prevedere il futuro.

Il futuro è ciò che da sempre preoccupa l’essere umano, soprattutto nella cultura occidentale. Si parla di previsioni di mercato per quanto riguarda l’ambito economico, di previsioni del tempo che informano circa i cambiamenti climatici, di stime quando si parla di rischi ambientali. Troviamo soggetti che consultano cartomanti, che cercano risposte nella disposizione delle foglie del thé, che studiano gli spostamenti degli uccelli per trarne qualche presagio.

Il futuro come ossessione

 

L’essere umano è ossessionato dalla possibilità di conoscere cosa accadrà. L’intelligenza artificiale oggi permette di sviluppare questa capacità. Viene definita capacità predittiva, gli algoritmi con cui si struttura l’intelligenza artificiale sono in grado di prevedere con una precisione abbastanza significativa cosa succederà.

La medicina sta facendo passi da gigante in questa direzione per permettere diagnosi accurate anche rispetto all’aspettativa di vita del paziente. MIPU lo fa sulle macchine, diagnostica i guasti prima che essi si presentino studiandole come fossero corpi umani. Si chiama manutenzione predittiva, proprio perché utilizza questa potenzialità.

La capacità predittiva tuttavia viene utilizzata anche in altri ambiti permettendo lo sviluppo di algoritmi in grado di avvicinarsi sempre di più ad una lettura precisa dell’immediato futuro.
E’ di pochi giorni fa la notizia di un’intelligenza artificiale in grado di prevedere la morte dei singoli individui, o quella di un algoritmo utilizzato per conoscere in anticipo come finiranno i mondiali di calcio.
Gli usi sono i più svariati e quello che c’è da chiedersi oggi è se sia necessario porre dei limiti a questo fenomeno, poiché non sempre conoscere tutto rende migliori le nostre vite. Come vivremmo se sapessimo con esatta precisione la data della nostra morte? O se fossimo in possesso di un’app in grado di prevedere tutte le conseguenze delle nostre azioni?

Sono domande che non possiamo evitare di porci. Come fissare il confine presso il quale costruire le nuove colonne d’Ercole?

 

Continuate a seguirci per approfondire la questione.

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